Breaking News! Turmoil rises again in the Middle East, and a conflict that affects global nerves is brewing. This morning, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, attacking Iran's important nuclear facilities in multiple ways, causing heavy damage. At the same time, two senior Iranian generals, one the commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards and the other the Chief of the General Staff, as well as six nuclear scientists, were targeted for elimination. The news caused an uproar around the world!
Iran's retaliation also followed. Just minutes ago, Iran had launched more than 100 drones at Israel. Will this conflict be just a limited military operation, or will it escalate into a larger-scale war that could even affect global geopolitics?
Israel-Iran Enmity: A Deep-Seated Conflict
The conflict between Israel and Iran has a long history, especially since Hamas launched a military operation against Israel on October 7, 2023. Israel has regarded Iran as the mastermind behind all anti-Israel alliances in the Middle East. In Israel's view, only by truly weakening Iran can it ensure its national security. Of course, this does not exclude the consideration of hardliners within Israel trying to divert domestic conflicts.
Although Iran has also launched attacks against Israel in the past few months, judging from past results, Iran's ability to strike Israel is actually quite limited. Take the events of a few years ago, after Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Soleimani was eliminated in Iraq, Iran threatened to make the U.S. military pay in blood, but the final retaliation seemed weak. Later, Iranian nuclear scientists were also eliminated one after another on the outskirts of Tehran, indicating that Israeli intelligence agencies have penetrated deeply into Iran.
Israel's Strategic Intentions: Weaken, Weaken Again!
So, what is the real purpose of Israel's action this time? Is it to completely destroy Iran? Probably not. Israel probably does not have the ability to completely destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. What Israel may want to achieve is to prevent Iran from directly launching military offensives against Israel, and to make it unable to support those organizations it considers to be anti-Israel alliances.
The purpose of the Netanyahu group is nothing more than to exchange for Israel's fragile national security and consolidate its precarious public support. To achieve this goal, they may launch endless attacks against Iran, and Iran's retaliation will at most be limited.
The International Community's Reaction: An Isolated Israel
It is worth noting that the United States' reaction to this incident was both expected and somewhat surprising. Many American politicians, including the former president, have expressed their opposition to this. The reason is that the U.S. and Iran are about to hold peace talks this weekend to discuss the nuclear agreement. The United States stated that it was not involved in this matter and was not even aware of it in advance. Other Western countries, such as Japan and the European Union, have also expressed condemnation, which makes Israel's situation seem quite isolated.
Nevertheless, Israel continues to do its own thing, which may be a manifestation of the strong character of the Jewish people. The Netanyahu group may have made up its mind to bet everything on one throw.
Future Trends: Long-Term Confrontation at Low to Medium Intensity
So, how will the situation develop in the future? From Netanyahu's true inner thoughts, he certainly hopes to completely destroy Iran. But the reality is that he can only achieve limited strikes. And Iran's retaliation, although more symbolic than practical, will still take action.
It is foreseeable that in the next six months or even a year and a half, a low-to-medium-intensity tense confrontation will form between Israel and Iran. This situation will keep the Middle East in a state of turmoil and instability for a long time.
This will undoubtedly affect international oil prices, gold, and other commodities.
A World with Three Conflicts: China's Challenges and Opportunities
The Middle East can truly be described as one wave not yet settled, another rises. The Hamas-Israel conflict has not yet been resolved, and the Israel-Iran conflict has broken out, coupled with the long-standing Russia-Ukraine conflict, there are currently about three conflicts going on simultaneously around the world.
The United States seems to be intentionally staying out of it, while Russia is deeply involved. This makes the international situation even more complicated.
So, what does this mean for China? Will China's economy and China's hard-won improved diplomatic situation face risks as a result, or will it usher in a new strategic turning point with our efforts?