Hey folks, the recent US stock market is truly a love-hate relationship! On one hand, it's been surging, seemingly poised to hit new highs; on the other hand, there's a nagging feeling that a "dead cat bounce" might be on the horizon!
What's a "dead cat bounce"? Simply put, it's a small rebound after a market crash. It looks like it's about to take off, but it's just an illusion and could plunge again at any time.
Let's not rush to argue whether it's a bull market or not. The key is to figure out your own trading strategy. Some think it's a bull market, so they go all in! Others think it's just a bear market rally, so they play with small positions.
Personally, I'm a bit more conservative and always wary of a "dead cat bounce." But since the market hasn't broken down, we can't just hold onto short positions. So, currently, I'm long with a small position. The recommended stocks are some second-tier growth stocks, like chips, AMD. I'm also planning to deploy some Apple this week. These are all large companies with solid fundamentals, and their recent gains have been pleasing.
Market Overview: Still Strong, Beware of the "Dead Cat Bounce" Trap
The US stock market is indeed strong right now. If there's good news from the US-China negotiations, it will definitely surge again. Also, there's a special day this week – June 14th, Old Trump's birthday, plus the US 250th anniversary parade, which will most likely release good news.
So, at this point in time, shorting is definitely unwise. If you really want to short, you have to wait for the right side, wait for the market to show a high-volume negative line.
As for now, we can only wait and see, wait and see!
Remember, if you firmly believe it's a bull market, then go long with heavy positions, aggressively long, go all in! If you think it might be a bear market, or just a "dead cat bounce," then play with small positions. The two strategies are not mutually exclusive.
Macro: Risks and Opportunities Coexist, US Treasury Yields are Key
The current US stock market faces many problems: US Treasuries, the "feud" between Old Trump and Musk, US stock earnings growth, the US-China tariff war... Macro factors are complex, with both good and bad news, making it difficult to interpret.
Take the 10-year US Treasury yield, for example. It recently fell a bit, but has rebounded to around 4.5%, which is very subtle.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| 10-year US Treasury Yield | Around 4.5% |
When can we finally feel comfortable going long? That depends on the performance of the US Treasury yields.
Individual Stocks: Tesla's Turmoil Continues, Apple May Usher in Catch-Up Gains
Tesla recently plunged 15%, which is a bit subtle. In fact, we had already reduced our positions before.
Why? Because the bruise on Musk's eye always feels like something's going to happen. Plus, he and Trump broke up, and the future is full of uncertainty.
Autonomous driving ultimately depends on policy. If Old Trump "attacks" Tesla, the impact will be significant.
Let's talk about Apple. At this WWDC, I'm most concerned about Apple's efforts in digital advertising. Will it therefore completely break away from Google?
Looking back at the past five years of WWDC, Apple's stock price performance seems to follow a pattern:
| WWDC Day Stock Performance | Subsequent Trend |
|---|---|
| Up | Continue to Rise |
| Down | Short-Term Decline Followed by a Surge |
In general, after the June WWDC, Apple often has a wave of hype. After the hype, the 618 e-commerce promotion comes again, and then the new phone is released in September, continuing the hype. But after September, there is often a wave of decline.
Apple is currently at a low level, is it bottoming out? Moreover, the index is about to hit new highs, shouldn't Apple make up for it?
Apple's decline is not because of deteriorating fundamentals, but because of tariffs and other factors. If there's good news from the US-China tariff negotiations, Apple will definitely benefit.
So, this week's Apple opportunity is good. Although Apple's volatility is not great and you can't make big money, there's still a good chance of making 10% by seizing the opportunity in the next two or three weeks.
Nvidia goes without saying, it's always been awesome. I'm more concerned about AMD now, the technical pattern is very beautiful, and there's a lot of capital inflow, so it's worth continuing to buy.
Microsoft has already hit a new high, it's time for Apple to step up!
Folks, investing involves risk, enter the market with caution!