Hello crypto enthusiasts! Recent market volatility has undoubtedly made everyone concerned about the movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Today, we'll delve into whether Bitcoin can break through the upper boundary of its monthly consolidation zone, and how Ethereum might perform.
I have a slight cold, so my voice might not sound its best. I appreciate your understanding.
Bitcoin: $110,000 Barrier - Can It Be Conquered in One Go?
Bitcoin has been operating within this monthly consolidation zone recently. The crucial question now is whether it can break through the upper boundary of this zone. This directly impacts our ability to seize the next upward trend.
Currently, we need to focus on two key levels: around $100,700 and around $112,000. Why these levels? Because support and resistance levels have two important characteristics: the more touchpoints, the more effective they are, and recent touchpoints are more effective than distant ones.
The $100,700 level has a lot of touchpoints, but it recently experienced a false breakout, so we need to question whether this level is still valid. On the other hand, $112,000 is near the highest point of the last false breakout and is also worth monitoring.
So, how should we determine if Bitcoin can break through?
-
Scenario 1: The price falls back below $100,700. This indicates that the $100,700 level has been crossed back and forth multiple times and is essentially invalid. Key levels cannot experience long periods of stagnation.
-
Scenario 2: The price doesn't fall back to $100,700, but doesn't aggressively push upward either. The price will likely pause near $112,000, making $112,000 an effective touchpoint. If the two recent retracements from highs both find effective touchpoints near $112,000, it suggests stronger consensus at this level.
-
Scenario 3: The price continues to rise, directly breaking through $112,000. This is a less likely scenario, but if it happens, it means Bitcoin has directly broken through the $100,700 to $112,000 zone with very strong momentum and continuity. This confirms a genuine breakout!
If the third scenario occurs, trading volume should increase, and there might even be an accelerated surge during the US trading session on an hourly or four-hourly basis.
Important Reminder: For monthly consolidation zones, it's best to look at weekly and daily signals. For a more conservative approach, observe the daily close. Of course, if the price is moving very quickly and hourly or four-hourly charts already suggest a strong daily close, you can also refer to the hourly signals.
In any case, as long as a strong breakout signal appears, it's very worthwhile to act on it. These breakout signals not only have a high win rate but also offer excellent risk-reward ratios.
Ethereum: Gearing Up, Waiting for Breakout Signals!
Ethereum is currently focused on whether the upper boundary of its daily consolidation zone is broken, which is roughly between $2395 and $2740. Based on the current touchpoints, the most critical level is $2740.
Note that Ethereum is still in a daily consolidation phase, not yet weekly. Therefore, to observe whether a breakout is happening, focus on hourly and four-hourly signals.
If Ethereum can show a very strong hourly or four-hourly bullish candlestick during the US trading session with increased trading volume and good continuity, then it can be considered a valid breakout.
However, be aware that if Ethereum surges directly to $2740 from the starting point without any adjustments, this breakout is more likely to fail. It's best if it first undergoes an hourly or four-hourly adjustment before a strong bullish breakout candlestick appears; such signals are more reliable.
So, what is Ethereum's target price? Approximately $4000, which is the upper boundary of the monthly or even quarterly growth box.
Additional Notes:
Looking at Ethereum's weekly chart, you can clearly see signs of declining volume during the consolidation. Although the weekly close of the past week had slightly higher trading volume than the week before, the past week had five trading days compared to four in the previous week. If averaged per trading day, the trading volume of the past week was actually smaller.
This indicates that Ethereum is undergoing a reduced volume consolidation, which is very favorable for trend continuation.
| Indicator | Last Week (5 Trading Days) | Previous Week (4 Trading Days) |
|---|---|---|
| Total Trading Volume | Slightly Higher | Slightly Lower |
| Average Daily Trading Volume | Smaller | Larger |
Therefore, we can expect a strong signal during the US trading session that could break through the $2740 level. Once broken, it would be an excellent trend opportunity!
Conclusion
I hope today's analysis has been helpful. Navigating bull and bear markets requires continuous learning and progress. Let's explore the crypto world together and seize opportunities!