China Manufacturing 2025, a ten-year plan once filled with high hopes, has now come to an end. When it was launched ambitiously in 2015, its goal was to comprehensively upgrade the manufacturing industry and achieve breakthroughs in several technology sectors. Now, it's time to take stock of this report card: how well were the goals achieved? How big is the gap between Chinese technology and the West? Today, let's delve into this topic.
China Manufacturing 2025: Were the Overall Goals Achieved?
To evaluate the effectiveness of "China Manufacturing 2025," we need to start from three dimensions: overall goals, individual industries, and the actual contribution to the economy.
First, let's look at the overall goals. In discussions, many people often focus on technological breakthroughs in specific industries while ignoring the systemic indicators in the original plan. The notice issued in 2015 actually contained a set of measurement systems, including 12 specific indicators.
Unfortunately, from the final results, only two of these 12 indicators barely met the standard: broadband penetration rate and the manufacturing quality competitiveness index. Other indicators, including green development, are far from the initial goals.
| Indicator | Achievement |
|---|---|
| Broadband penetration rate | Met the standard |
| Manufacturing quality competitiveness index | Met the standard |
| Green development related indicators (4 items) | Far from the target |
Ten Key Industries: Which Exceeded Expectations and Which Failed?
Of course, more attention is paid to the development of specific industries. At that time, "China Manufacturing 2025" выделялось ten key development industries and set quantitative goals. How are these industries performing now? Let's analyze them one by one.
According to the development situation, it can be roughly divided into three categories: exceeding expectations, mixed performance, and failing to meet expectations.
"Top Students" Exceeding Expectations
- Power equipment: China has achieved a leading position in the field of power generation. Especially in new energy power generation, China's photovoltaic industry is a world leader, not only with production capacity exceeding global demand but also mastering the complete industrial chain. In terms of nuclear power, the self-developed Hualong One has a localization rate of over 90% and has achieved exports. Of course, there are still shortcomings in the wind power field, and some key components still rely on imports, but overall, the power equipment industry has exceeded its goals.
- Advanced rail transit equipment: The localization rate of high-speed rail is also quite considerable. Taking the Fuxing EMU as an example, the localization rate has reached 97%, with only a small number of key components relying on imports. Although China's high-speed rail has less influence in the international market than photovoltaics, it still exceeds initial expectations.
"Potential Stocks" with Mixed Performance
- Automobile industry: It should be noted that "China Manufacturing 2025" requires not only electric vehicles but also energy-saving vehicles. Although China has made great progress in the field of pure electric vehicles, accounting for 70% of global electric vehicle sales in 2024 and emerging leading companies such as BYD, China is still behind in the traditional internal combustion engine vehicle field. As of 2024, foreign automakers still occupy 65% of the fuel vehicle market, and energy-saving and emission reduction technologies are far inferior to traditional automakers such as Toyota. More importantly, even in the field of electric vehicles, key technologies such as engines, control systems, and ABS anti-lock braking systems still rely on multinational corporations.
- New-generation information technology industry: This field covers software development, chips, and communication equipment. Among them, the self-sufficiency rate of industrial software is far from meeting the standard, with more than 90% still relying on foreign companies. The chip industry is polarized: high-end chip manufacturing is being "strangled," and EUV lithography machines are still an unattainable goal; however, Chinese companies have made certain breakthroughs in low-end chips and memory chips. Mobile communication equipment (mainly referring to mobile phones) performs relatively well, with the domestic market share basically meeting the standard and the international market share even exceeding expectations.
| Project | Indicator | Achievement |
|---|---|---|
| New energy vehicles | State-owned enterprises account for 50% of fuel vehicles in 2025 | Foreign automakers occupy 65% of China's sales of fuel vehicles |
| Industrial software | The market share of China's independent industrial software exceeds 50% | More than 90% rely on foreign companies |
| Mobile phone (domestic) | In the domestic mobile phone market, the market share of Chinese companies reaches 80% | If Apple is included, it reaches 87%, but if Apple is excluded, it is only 72% |
| Mobile phone (international) | In the international market, the market share of Chinese companies reaches 40% | In 2024, the share of Chinese mobile phones (excluding Apple) in the world has reached 41% |
"Laggards" Failing to Meet Expectations
- Aerospace industry: Although there has been progress in the aerospace field, the aviation field has almost stagnated. The localization rate of the C919 large aircraft relies heavily on foreign technology and is evaluated as "actually a Western aircraft built in China, but the shell uses Chinese metal."
- Medical industry: Although the low-end pharmaceutical industry has certain advantages, "China Manufacturing 2025" is aimed at high-end pharmaceuticals and high-end medical devices. In terms of high-end pharmaceuticals, progress in aligning drug quality standards with international standards is limited, and the number of independent innovative drugs entering the international market is far from meeting the standard. The localization rate of high-end medical devices is only 30%, far from the target of 70%.
- Industrial robots and high-end machine tool industry: The self-sufficiency rate in the field of industrial robots is far below expectations, and the market share of high-end CNC machine tools is only 15%.
Success in a Broader Sense: Who Won and Who Lost?
"China Manufacturing 2025" is only a means, not the ultimate goal. What is the ultimate goal of technological innovation? Is it to improve people's living standards or to enhance national competitiveness?
From the perspective of the people, "China Manufacturing 2025" is undoubtedly a failure. It has not helped China escape the middle-income trap, nor has it made Chinese people's lives better. On the contrary, some overdeveloped industries, such as photovoltaics and high-speed rail, have also brought problems such as overcapacity and waste of resources.
But from another perspective, "China Manufacturing 2025" may be successful for some goals. It has reduced China's dependence on foreign technology to a certain extent and enhanced China's confidence in confronting the Western world. Even if relations with the United States and other countries deteriorate, China can rely on its own established industrial base to achieve self-sufficiency.
In summary, "China Manufacturing 2025" is a complex project, and its success or failure is difficult to simply conclude. It has made significant progress in some areas, but has encountered setbacks in others. More importantly, we need to reflect on the ultimate purpose of technological innovation and how to make technological progress truly benefit all people.