In today's world, space has long become a new battlefield for major powers to compete. China's Beidou Navigation Satellite System is not only a symbol of technological strength but also plays a pivotal role in military and civilian fields. We have always adhered to the principle of "no first use of force," which is both a restraint and a responsible attitude of a major power. But if one day, the U.S. really dares to destroy Beidou satellites, will China be devastated?
Let's first understand Beidou. This is China's independently developed global positioning system, on par with the U.S. GPS, Russia's GLONASS, and Europe's Galileo. In June 2020, the Beidou-3 system completed global networking, with 55 satellites operating in orbit, covering the globe. Its positioning accuracy can reach an astonishing 10 meters or less, the speed measurement error is less than 0.2 meters/second, and the time synchronization accuracy is as high as 20 nanoseconds!
What do these data mean? Simply put, Beidou allows you to know exactly where you are, how fast you are moving, and the time synchronization is almost error-free. This is not just as simple as mobile phone navigation; its role in the military is even more critical.
Beidou's Dual Role in Military and Civilian Fields
Precision-guided missiles require precise positioning, and troop movements rely on real-time navigation and communication. Beidou also has a unique skill—short message communication. It can send information even in areas without mobile phone signals, which is a lifesaver on the battlefield! Coupled with space-based augmentation services, which can further improve accuracy, Beidou stands out among many navigation systems.
In the civilian field, Beidou's influence has also permeated all aspects of our lives.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024 Output Value | 575.8 billion yuan |
| Annual Growth Rate | 7.39% |
| Phones Supporting Beidou | 2.88 billion |
| Daily Navigation Mileage | 4 billion kilometers |
Transportation, agriculture, fisheries, meteorology, electricity... Beidou is everywhere. 288 million smartphones from brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi support Beidou navigation, and Baidu Maps and Gaode Maps rely on it to guide users for 4 billion kilometers every day. Beidou also quietly helps us monitor hydrology, forecast weather, and dispatch electricity, and its presence is even felt in more than 130 countries in Africa and Southeast Asia. It is no exaggeration to say that Beidou has become the infrastructure of modern life.
If Beidou Falls, Will China Lose?
If the Beidou system is paralyzed, the impact will naturally be significant. Military command and strike capabilities will be hampered, and logistics, communication, and agriculture in the economy will also fall into chaos. But does this mean that China will completely lose this contest?
Not necessarily! The key is to see whether China can withstand this blow and how it will respond afterward.
"No first use of force" is China's consistent principle, reflecting our strategic considerations on the international stage. Unless others act first, we will not actively provoke conflict. But this does not mean that we will sit idly by.
If the U.S. really destroys Beidou satellites, it would undoubtedly be a naked act of aggression. China has every reason to retaliate! The principle of "no first use of force" does not apply in this case, because the other party has already preempted. Our military principles also include "responding after being attacked"—if someone hits you, you must hit back, and hit back harder!
Would the U.S. Really Dare to Act? What Would Be the Cost?
From a technical perspective, the U.S. does have the ability to destroy satellites. They have anti-satellite missiles, such as the SM-3, which was used to shoot down an out-of-control satellite in 2008. There are also electronic jamming technologies that can disable satellite signals. With the establishment of the U.S. Space Force, anti-satellite capabilities will certainly reach a new level.
But don't forget, Beidou is not just one or two satellites, but a total of 55, distributed in different orbits. Destroying all of them would take a lot of time and effort, and they would also have to face China's defensive measures.
Beidou satellites are designed with electromagnetic protection in mind, with special materials on the surface to absorb interference waves, and internal components with radiation resistance, enabling them to withstand harsh environments for a period of time. Even if some satellites are shot down, other satellites can share the task, and the entire system will not collapse immediately.
Moreover, destroying satellites is not like playing a game; it will also have serious consequences. Each attack will generate a large amount of space debris. In 2007, China shot down one of its own defunct satellites, leaving more than 3,000 pieces of debris, which are still floating in orbit. If the U.S. destroys Beidou, the resulting debris is likely to collide with their own GPS satellites, or even the International Space Station! The U.S. would have to weigh the consequences of killing a thousand enemies and hurting itself eight hundred.
Alternative Solutions After Beidou Is Damaged
If Beidou is really attacked, the Chinese military will certainly be affected. Navigation will become troublesome, missile accuracy will decrease, and troop coordination may also be problematic. But we are not limited to Beidou as a lifeline.
Loran-C is a ground-based navigation system. Although the accuracy is only a few hundred meters, far less than Beidou, the basic functions can still be used barely. China has added three Loran-C transmitting stations in the western region, increasing national coverage. In coastal areas, Loran-C signals can cover up to 1,000 nautical miles, and ships can rely on it for positioning. In addition, we are also building a high-precision ground-based time synchronization system. In 2023, Xi'an launched a related project to lay 20,000 kilometers of optical fiber and build 295 stations to integrate air and ground signals. This system has strong anti-interference capabilities and can fill in when satellites fail.
Militarily, China certainly has other backup plans, such as inertial navigation. Although not as accurate as satellite navigation, it can still play a role in critical moments.
The economic impact may be more severe. If Beidou is paralyzed, logistics, communication, and agriculture will be impacted. The disappearance of 4 billion kilometers of navigation services per day will throw express delivery into chaos, and port scheduling will also slow down. More than 130 countries around the world are using Beidou, especially in Africa and Southeast Asia, where agricultural surveying, disaster relief, and other activities will be affected. This is not just a problem for China; U.S. companies cannot stay out of it, because global supply chains are closely linked.
But the Chinese economy will not collapse as a result. Although the Beidou industry is huge, its output value of 575.8 billion yuan is only a part of GDP. Key industries will have emergency measures, such as switching to other navigation systems or using ground equipment to maintain operations. Moreover, China can launch new satellites in a short period of time for replenishment.
China's Retaliation Measures
China will never sit idly by and wait to be beaten. If the U.S. dares to destroy Beidou, we will definitely retaliate, and the means will be more than one.
We possess anti-satellite weapons, as was demonstrated as early as January 11, 2007. At that time, an SC-19 missile was launched from the ground and accurately hit a defunct satellite, leaving countless pieces of debris. This test deterred many countries and made it clear to the U.S. that China is not to be trifled with.
China has made it clear that whoever threatens our space assets, we reserve the right to retaliate. If the conflict escalates, China may well target the U.S. GPS. The GPS system has 31 satellites in orbit, and if China shoots down a few of them, the U.S. military and economy will also fall into chaos.
In addition to space, we have other cards to play. Cyber warfare is an option. China has the ability to launch large-scale cyberattacks, paralyzing U.S. infrastructure. Economically, we can exert pressure through trade measures, such as restricting rare earth exports, which are the lifeblood of the U.S. high-tech industry. Of course, there is also the final trump card—nuclear deterrence. Although no one wants to get to that point, it does exist.
Global Impact and Potential Risks
The bombing of Beidou is not just a matter between China and the U.S.; it will affect the entire world. More than 130 countries are using Beidou, Africa uses it for surveying, and Southeast Asia relies on it for disaster relief. Once the signal is interrupted, there will certainly be no shortage of protests. The U.S. may find itself isolated as a result. China can also unite with allies to bring the matter to the United Nations to win international public opinion support.
The bigger problem is space debris. Bombing satellites will worsen the low-Earth orbit environment and may trigger the Kessler syndrome, where debris collisions create more debris, eventually leading to everyone being unable to use space.
Satellites play a vital role in nuclear command and warning systems. Once Beidou is paralyzed, it may lead to China misjudging the situation, thereby increasing the alert level. In 2022, a think tank report pointed out that damage to space assets could easily lead to nuclear conflict escalation, which is by no means alarmist.
The international community may take this opportunity to promote the introduction of space norms. In 2021, the United Nations held a meeting in Xi'an to discuss how Beidou and GPS could help each other. In the future, similar platforms may be used to discuss bans on anti-satellite weapons. However, space is so important that it is difficult to reach relevant agreements.
Conclusion: A Game With No Winners
Returning to the original question, if the U.S. destroys Beidou, will China lose? The answer is: not necessarily. It depends on what our goals are.
If it is a full-scale war, the destruction of Beidou is just the beginning. China has retaliation capabilities and backup systems and will not be defeated with one move. If it is a local conflict, losing Beidou will hurt China, but it will certainly not lead to complete surrender.
Modern warfare and international games are never determined by a single system; comprehensive national strength, strategy, and resilience are the keys. China has ground-based navigation systems, the ability to quickly replenish satellites, and anti-satellite weapons as a backup. The bombing of Beidou will certainly cause us pain, but it will not be fatal.
Conversely, the U.S. must also face backlash and international pressure, and may end up shooting itself in the foot. More importantly, there are no winners in space conflicts. Both sides rely on satellites, and mutual destruction will only make everyone regress together. The global economy and security will also suffer greatly, a cost that no country can afford.
The U.S. bombing of Beidou will not directly lead to China's failure, but it will push the two countries to an extremely dangerous edge. Beidou is not only China's asset but also a global public good. Maintaining peace in space is not just empty talk; it is practically related to the vital interests of each of us. China has the ability to cope with this challenge and will use various means to protect itself. But the best result is for everyone to remain restrained and avoid conflict.
Space competition can exist, but there must be a bottom line. In the coming years, the space field may become even more lively, and how to manage this new strategic high ground is a question that the whole world needs to think about seriously.